Part 3 of results
Telephone survey among likely 2012 voters in Overland Park, KS. Conducted Tuesday, August 9, and Wednesday, August 10, by the State and Local Educational Foundation of Kansas. Margin of error +/- 5.4%. Party breakdown: 51% Republican, 29% Unaffiliated, 20% and Democratic. 55% Female, and 45% Male. 50% over the age of 50, and 50% under the age of 50.
For detailed accompanying information for comparison and background purposes, click here. To view part 1 of our results, click here. To view part 2 of our results, click here. More information about survey methodology can be found at the bottom of this page.
Summary:
- Overland Park:
Our results indicate that 48% of Overland Park's voters are conservative (among likely November Overland Park voters). This includes 16% who are "very conservative." Thirty-six percent (36%) are moderate, and 16% are either "somewhat liberal" or "very liberal."
Given that Overland Park's voters supported John McCain over Barack Obama by a 53-46% margin, when the nation voted for Obama by a 53-46% margin, our results are comparable to Gallup's national numbers. According to Gallup, 41% of United States adults are conservative.
Other comparisons:
- Our results show 66% of Republicans to be either "very" or "somewhat conservative." Gallup's figure was 71%.
- Gallup found 24% of Republicans to be moderate. Our number was 29%.
- Among Independents, Gallup found 35% to be conservative, and 44% to be moderate. We found 34% of Unaffiliated voters to be conservative, and 45% to be moderate.
Age and poltical views:
Among likely 2012 voters in Overland Park, 48% are over the age of 50, and 52% are under the age of 50. We find that over-50 likely Overland Park voters are only slightly more conservative than under-50 Overland Park voters. However, it is within the margin of error in our sub-sample (there was a sample size of 170 each of over-50 and under-50 voters, with a margin of error of 7.7% for each sub-sample).
Among over-50 voters in Overland Park, 49% are conservative; among under-50 voters, 46% are conservative. There are slightly fewer moderate voters among over-50 (35%) than with under-50 voters (37%). Among over-50 voters, 15% self-identified as liberal; 17% of under-50 likely Overland Park voters are liberal.
- Sam Brownback favorability ratings:
Note that asking voters about a politician's favorability is not exactly the same as asking about job approval, but the two are similar and are connected. For fully-known politicians, favorability numbers can be considered a ceiling (voters may personally like an elected official more than they like the job performance of that official).
In 2010, Governor Sam Brownback, a Republican, won about 63% of the state-wide vote. Brownback also won 63% of the vote both in Johnson County and in Overland Park.
Our survey finds that Gov. Brownback has a healthy favorability rating, but it's not notably strong. Overall, Brownback has a 52% favorable, 37% unfavorable rating. 10% had no opinion. This is comparable to Survey USA's June 23, 2011, findings, in which 47% of state-wide adults approved of Brownback's job as governor, 45% disapproved, and 8% were not sure.
Brownback is viewed favorably by 72% of Republicans, by 78% of conservatives, and 37% of moderates. Fifty-one percent (51%) of voters over the age of 50 view him favorably, and 54% of voters under 50 view him favorably.
Overall, 19% of voters view Brownback "very favorably," and 22% view him "very unfavorably." Among Republicans, 32% answered "very favorable," as did 34% of conservatives.
- Kris Kobach favorability ratings:
Kobach is a past Overland Park Councilman, was a candidate for the Kansas Senate in 2000, and was the Republican nominee for US Congress in 2004. Kobach is a frequent target of attacks by liberals, such as those at The Kansas City Star and former Johnson County Sun publisher Steve Rose. Kobach hosts a weekly Sunday-night radio show on KCMO 710 AM.
In 2010, Kansans gave Republican candidate Kris Kobach 59% of the vote. Johnson County voted for Kobach with 60% of the total vote, and Overland Park awarded 59% of the vote to Kobach.
Among likely 2012 voters, Secretary of State Kris Kobach has about 70% "hard name ID," referring to those voters who have an opinion of him. Ten percent (10%) did not recognize his name, and another 21% had heard of him but had no opinion.
Overall, Kobach has remarkably strong favorability rating, all things considered. His "very favorable" numbers among conservatives and Republicans are nearly identical to those of Gov. Brownback, despite Kobach's lower familiarity with all voters.
Kobach is viewed favorably by 39% of likely voters, 30% view him unfavorably, and 21% have heard of him but have no opinion. Eighteen percent (18%) have a "very favorable" opinion of Kobach, and 18% have a "very unfavorable" opinion.
Among Republicans, Kobach's totals are 59% favorable and 22% unfavorable. Thirty-three percent (33%) of Republicans view him "very favorably," and 10% of Republicans view him "very unfavorably." Five percent (5%) did not recognize Kobach's name, and another 14% had heard of him but had no opinion.
Conservatives give Kobach a 33% "very favorable" rating, and a 6% "very unfavorable" rating. Overall, 65% of conservatives view Kobach favorably, and 14% view him unfavorably.
Among moderates, 4% view him "very favorably," and 24% view him "very unfavorably." Moderates gives Kobach a total favorably rating of 18%, and a total unfavorable rating of 42%.
Kobach is better known among voters over the age of 50. Over-50 voters give Kobach a 40% favorable and 33% unfavorable rating. Seventeen percent (17%) have no opinion of Kobach, and another 9% have never heard of him.
Among voters under the age of 50 years, 37% view Kobach favorably, 27% view him unfavorably, 25% have heard of him but have no opinion, and 11% did not recognize Kobach's name.
- Kansas City Star ratings:
The Kansas City Star is universally recognized, but fewer than half of likely Overland Park voters have a favorable opinion of the publication. Forty seven percent (47%) of voters have a favorable opinion of The Star, and 44% have an unfavorable opinion.
The paper is very divisive. As demonstrated earlier, 48% of Overland Park voters are conservative: 27% of conservatives have a favorable opinion of The Star, and 65% have an unfavorable opinion of the paper. This includes 6% of conservatives who have a "very favorable" opinion, and 35% have a "very unfavorable" opinion.
Among moderates, 58% view The Star favorably, and 33% view it unfavorably.
- Steve Rose ratings:
Rose is the former owner and publisher of The Johnson County Sun, founded by his father in 1950. This poll was performed before it was announced that The Sun would no longer be in business. Rose is currently a columnist for The Star, has hosted at least one local television show, has co-hosted at least one radio program, and he is considered a "friend of the program" to Mike Shanin and Scott Parks' radio program on KMBZ 980 AM. He is a reliable critic of fiscal conservatives, of challengers to monopolized K-12 government education, and of pro-life politicians.
Relative to all of his exposure, Rose is quite unknown to voters in Overland Park, a city in the heart of the general readership area for The Sun and The Star.
Overall, 80% are familiar with Steve Rose's name, and 59% have an opinion of him. Thirty-two percent (32%) have a favorable opinion of Rose, and 28% have an unfavorable opinion. Seven percent (7%) view him "very favorably," and 10% view him "very unfavorably."
Among over-50 voters, 35% have a favorable opinion of Rose, and 37% have an unfavorable opinion, 17% have heard of him but have no opinion, and 12% have not heard of Rose.
Among under-50 voters, 28% view Rose favorably, 19% view him unfavorably, 24% are neutral towards him, and another 29% of under-50 voters say they've never heard of Rose.
Thirty-two percent (32%) of Republicans view him favorably, and 39% view him unfavorably. This includes 8% who view him "very favorably" and 16% who view him "very unfavorably."
Thirty-two percent (32%) of conservatives view Rose favorably, and 36% view him unfavorably. Seven percent (7%) of conservatives have a "very favorable" opinion of Rose, and 15% have a "very unfavorable" opinion."
Moderate Overland Park voters give Rose a 31% favorable rating, and a 20% unfavorable rating. Only 6% give him a "very favorable" opinion, with another 6% saying they have a "very unfavorable" opinion of Rose.
- Comparing political views (ideology) nation-wide with Overland Park's voters:
Kansas:
There are actually 20 states which Gallup considers to be more conservative than Kansas. Gallup ranks Kansas as #21 among the states, in terms of how many voters are considered to be conservative.
Gallup considers 40% of Kansas voters to be conservative, 39% to be moderate, and 19% to be liberal.
According to Gallup, Alabama ranks #1 with 49% of its voters identified as conservative. Washington, DC, ranks last, with only 23% of its voters considered to be conservative.
Nation-wide:
According to an August 1, 2011, report from Gallup, 41% of American adults are conservative, 36% are moderate, and 21% are liberal.
Among all adults:
- 11% are very conservative
- 30% are conservative
- 36% are moderate
- 15% are liberal
- 6% are very liberal
Among Republicans:
- 21% are very conservative
- 50% are conservative
- 24% are moderate
- 3% are liberal
- 1% are very liberal
Among Independent voters:
- 8% are very conservative
- 27% are conservative
- 44% are moderate
- 14% are liberal
- 6% are very liberal
According to an August 18, 2011, report from Rasmussen Reports:
"Forty-three percent (43%) of voters say they are conservative when it comes to fiscal issues such as taxes, government spending and business regulation. Thirty-seven percent (37%) characterize themselves as moderates in this area, while 14% are fiscal liberals.
When it comes to social issues like abortion, public prayer and church-state topics: 36% say they are conservative, 29% moderate and another 32% liberal."
More from this August 2011 article by Rasmussen:
"The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 28% of Likely Voters say they are both fiscal and social conservatives. Just 12% say they are liberal in both areas, while 60% are some other combination."
...
"Among voters who are conservative on fiscal issues, 64% are also conservative when it comes to social issues. Twenty-four percent (24%) of fiscal conservatives are moderates on social issues and 11% are liberal. Among fiscal moderates, 42% of moderate on social issues as well and 39% are social liberals.
As for fiscal liberals, 88% are also liberal on social issues.
More men than women tend to be conservative on both social and fiscal issues. Voters over 40 are more conservative both fiscally and socially than those who are younger.
Seventy-eight percent (78%) of Republicans are fiscal conservatives, while a plurality of both Democrats (46%) and voters not affiliated with either major political party (44%) see themselves as moderates on money issues. As for social issues, two-out-of-three (66%) GOP voters are conservative, while a majority (53%) of Democrats are liberals. Unaffiliated voters are more closely divided."
- Background on Kansas-wide elections and Overland Park elections:
Registration:
State of Kansas and City of Overland Park:
Based on voter registration, Overland Park is technically a more heavily Republican area and less Democratic area, compared to the state of Kansas. However, the city's voters often end up being less supportive of Republican candidates, compared to state-wide voters. Kansas-wide, about 45% of voters are registered as Republicans, 27% are Democratic, and and 28% are Unaffiliated. In Overland Park, 51% are registered as Republicans, 23% as Democrats, and 26% are either Unaffiliated or another party. The likely implication: In Overland Park, a sizeable minority of registered Republican voters probably rarely vote for the conservative and/or Republican candidate.
Nation-wide:
According to an August 1, 2011, article by Rasmussen Reports, about 35% of Americans were considered to be Democrats, 33% were Republicans, and 32% were Independents:
"In July, 34.8% of adults consider themselves to be Democrats, virtually unchanged from 34.7% in June. The number of Republicans fell from 35.6% in May to 34.4% in June to 33.1% in July. That’s the lowest total for the GOP since July 2010. For Democrats, the current results are in the middle of a narrow range they’ve occupied for the first six months of 2011. Voters not affiliated with either party grew from 31.0% in June to 32.1% in July. Over the past year, the gap between the two parties has been two points or less with just two exceptions."
Click here to view a history of partisan trends going back to 2004, according to Rasmussen Reports.
2008 election review:
President:
In 2008, the nation voted 53% for Democrat Barack Obama and 46% for Republican John McCain. Kansas as a whole voted for the Republican by a 57-42% margin. Johnson County voted for the Republican John McCain by a 54-45% margin, out of about 285,000 votes cast. Overland Park supported the Republican McCain with 53% of the vote, and Democrat Obama with 46%, out of about 120,000 ballots cast.
US Senate:
Kansas voted for incumbent Republican Pat Roberts over Democrat Jim Slattery by a 60-36% margin. Johnson County supported the Republican by a 58-39% margin. As well, Overland Park voted for Republican Pat Roberts with 58% of all votes, and Democrat Jim Slattery with 39%.
US Congress:
Johnson County voted to re-elect 3rd District Congressman Dennis Moore, a Democrat, with 51% of the vote, over Republican State Senator Nick Jordan, who received 45% of the vote. Overland Park was tougher on the Republican: Democrat Dennis Moore received 52%, and the Republican Nick Jordan received 43%.
2010 election review:
US Senate:
Kansas voted for Republican Jerry Moran with 70% of the vote; Democrat Lisa Johnston received 26%. Johnson County, out of about 185,000 total votes cast, gave Republican Moran 66% of the vote, and Democrat Johnston 30%. About 120,000 people voted in Overland Park: 65% of the voters supported Republican Jerry Moran, and Democrat Lisa Johnston was supported by 32% of voters.
US Congress:
When considering the results, note that Republican Kevin Yoder represented an Overland Park Kansas House district from 2002-2010. Johnson Countyvoted for Kevin Yoder with 65% of the vote, and gave Democrat Stephene Moore 33% of the vote. Similar to the county as a whole, Overland Park voters gave Republican Yoder about 65% of the vote, Democrat Stephene Moore received 33%.
Question: "In general, how would you describe your political views?"
Ideology (all voters): Count Percent
- Very conservative: 55 16.2%
- Somewhat conservative: 107 31.5%
- Moderate: 123 36.2%
- Somewhat liberal: 40 11.8%
- Very liberal: 15 4.4%
Total: 340 100%
Among Republicans Count Percent
Very conservative: 46 26.4%
Somewhat conservative: 69 39.7%
Moderate: 51 29.3%
Somewhat liberal: 8 4.6%
Very liberal: 0 0%
Total: 174 100%
[Note: Sample size=174; Margin of error=7.6%]
Among Unaffiliateds Count Percent
Very conservative: 6 6.1%
Somewhat conservative: 27 27.6%
Moderate: 44 44.9%
Somewhat liberal: 16 16.3%
Very liberal: 5 5.1%
Total: 98 100%
[Note: Sample size=98; Margin of error=10.1%]
Over age 50 Count Percent
Very conservative: 30 17.7%
Somewhat conservative: 54 31.8%
Moderate: 60 35.3%
Somewhat liberal: 17 10.0%
Very liberal: 9 5.3%
Total: 170 100%
[Note: Sample size=170; Margin of error=7.7%]
Under age 50 Count Percent
Very conservative: 25 14.7%
Somewhat conservative: 53 31.2%
Moderate: 63 37.1%
Somewhat liberal: 23 13.5%
Very liberal: 6 3.5%
Total: 170 100%
[Note: Sample size=170; Margin of error=7.7%]
Question: “I will now list the names of several public figures and groups, and we would like to know your opinion of them. It's OK if you have not heard of them. What is your opinion of…?”
Sam Brownback Count Percent
Very favorable: 66 19.4%
Somewhat favorable: 111 32.7%
Somewhat unfavorable: 49 14.4%
Very unfavorable: 76 22.4%
Heard of, but no opinion: 34 10.0%
Have never heard of: 4 1.2%
Total: 340 100%
Among Republicans Count Percent
Very favorable: 56 32.2%
Somewhat favorable: 69 39.7%
Somewhat unfavorable: 20 5.9%
Very unfavorable: 19 10.9%
Heard of, but no opinion: 9 5.2%
Have never heard of: 1 0.6%
Total: 174 100%
[Note: Sample size=174; Margin of error=7.6%]
Over 50 Count Percent
Very favorable: 33 19.4%
Somewhat favorable: 53 31.2%
Somewhat unfavorable: 18 10.6%
Very unfavorable: 49 28.8%
Heard of, but no opinion: 16 9.4%
Have never heard of: 1 0.6%
Total: 170 100%
[Note: Sample size=170; Margin of error=7.7%]
Under 50 Count Percent
Very favorable: 33 19.4%
Somewhat favorable: 58 34.1%
Somewhat unfavorable: 31 18.2%
Very unfavorable: 27 15.9%
Heard of, but no opinion: 18 10.6%
Have never heard of: 3 1.8%
Total: 170 100%
[Note: Sample size=170; Margin of error=7.7%]
Conservatives Count Percent
Very favorable: 55 34.0%
Somewhat favorable: 71 43.8%
Somewhat unfavorable: 16 9.9%
Very unfavorable: 10 6.2%
Heard of, but no opinion: 9 5.6%
Have never heard of: 1 0.6%
Total: 162 100%
[Note: Sample size=162; Margin of error=7.9%]
Moderates Count Percent
Very favorable: 11 8.9%
Somewhat favorable: 34 27.6%
Somewhat unfavorable: 20 16.3%
Very unfavorable: 35 28.5%
Heard of, but no opinion: 21 17.1%
Have never heard of: 2 1.6%
Total: 123 100%
[Note: Sample size=123; Margin of error=9.0%]
Kris Kobach Count Percent
Very favorable: 60 17.7%
Somewhat favorable: 72 21.2%
Somewhat unfavorable: 40 11.8%
Very unfavorable: 62 18.2%
Heard of, but no opinion: 71 20.9%
Have never heard of: 35 10.3%
Total: 340 100%
Among Republicans Count Percent
Very favorable: 57 32.8%
Somewhat favorable: 46 26.4%
Somewhat unfavorable: 22 12.6%
Very unfavorable: 17 9.8%
Heard of, but no opinion: 24 13.8%
Have never heard of: 8 4.6%
Total: 174 100%
[Note: Sample size=174; Margin of error=7.6%]
Over 50 Count Percent
Very favorable: 34 20.0%
Somewhat favorable: 35 20.1%
Somewhat unfavorable: 18 10.6%
Very unfavorable: 38 22.4%
Heard of, but no opinion: 29 17.1%
Have never heard of: 16 9.4%
Total: 170 100%
[Note: Sample size=170; Margin of error=7.7%]
Under 50 Count Percent
Very favorable: 26 15.3%
Somewhat favorable: 37 21.8%
Somewhat unfavorable: 22 12.9%
Very unfavorable: 24 14.1%
Heard of, but no opinion: 42 24.7%
Have never heard of: 19 11.2%
Total: 170 100%
[Note: Sample size=170; Margin of error=7.7%]
Conservatives Count Percent
Very favorable: 54 33.3%
Somewhat favorable: 51 31.5%
Somewhat unfavorable: 12 7.4%
Very unfavorable: 10 6.2%
Heard of, but no opinion: 26 16.1%
Have never heard of: 9 5.6%
Total: 162 100%
[Note: Sample size=162; Margin of error=7.9%]
Moderates Count Percent
Very favorable: 5 4.1%
Somewhat favorable: 17 13.8%
Somewhat unfavorable: 22 17.9%
Very unfavorable: 30 24.4%
Heard of, but no opinion: 30 24.4%
Have never heard of: 19 15.5%
Total: 123 100%
[Note: Sample size=123; Margin of error=9.0%]
The Kansas City Star Count Percent
Very favorable: 35 10.3%
Somewhat favorable: 125 36.8%
Somewhat unfavorable: 79 23.2%
Very unfavorable: 72 21.2%
Heard of, but no opinion: 27 7.9%
Have never heard of: 2 0.6%
Total: 340 100%
Among Republicans Count Percent
Very favorable: 13 7.5%
Somewhat favorable: 45 25.9%
Somewhat unfavorable: 47 27.0%
Very unfavorable: 56 32.2%
Heard of, but no opinion: 13 7.5%
Have never heard of: 0 0%
Total: 174 100%
[Note: Sample size=174; Margin of error=7.6%]
Over 50 Count Percent
Very favorable: 24 14.1%
Somewhat favorable: 61 35.9%
Somewhat unfavorable: 33 19.4%
Very unfavorable: 41 24.1%
Heard of, but no opinion: 9 5.3%
Have never heard of: 2 1.2%
Total: 170 100%
[Note: Sample size=170; Margin of error=7.7%]
Under 50 Count Percent
Very favorable: 11 6.5%
Somewhat favorable: 64 37.7%
Somewhat unfavorable: 46 27.1%
Very unfavorable: 31 18.2%
Heard of, but no opinion: 18 10.6%
Have never heard of: 0 0%
Total: 170 100%
[Note: Sample size=170; Margin of error=7.7%]
Conservatives Count Percent
Very favorable: 10 6.2%
Somewhat favorable: 35 21.6%
Somewhat unfavorable: 48 29.6%
Very unfavorable: 57 35.2%
Heard of, but no opinion: 11 6.8%
Have never heard of: 1 0.6%
Total: 162 100%
[Note: Sample size=162; Margin of error=7.9%]
Moderates Count Percent
Very favorable: 16 13.0%
Somewhat favorable: 55 44.7%
Somewhat unfavorable: 26 21.1%
Very unfavorable: 14 11.4%
Heard of, but no opinion: 11 8.9%
Have never heard of: 1 0.8%
Total: 123 100%
[Note: Sample size=123; Margin of error=9.0%]
Steve Rose Count Percent
Very favorable: 24 7.1%
Somewhat favorable: 83 24.4%
Somewhat unfavorable: 60 17.7%
Very unfavorable: 35 10.3%
Heard of, but no opinion: 69 20.3%
Have never heard of: 69 20.3%
Total: 340 100%
Among Republicans Count Percent
Very favorable: 14 8.1%
Somewhat favorable: 41 23.6%
Somewhat unfavorable: 41 23.6%
Very unfavorable: 27 15.5%
Heard of, but no opinion: 21 12.1%
Have never heard of: 30 17.2%
Total: 174 100%
[Note: Sample size=174; Margin of error=7.6%]
Over 50 Count Percent
Very favorable: 14 8.2%
Somewhat favorable: 45 26.5%
Somewhat unfavorable: 42 24.7%
Very unfavorable: 21 12.4%
Heard of, but no opinion: 28 16.5%
Have never heard of: 20 11.8%
Total: 170 100%
[Note: Sample size=170; Margin of error=7.7%]
Under 50 Count Percent
Very favorable: 10 5.9%
Somewhat favorable: 38 22.4%
Somewhat unfavorable: 18 10.6%
Very unfavorable: 14 8.2%
Heard of, but no opinion: 41 24.1%
Have never heard of: 49 28.8%
Total: 170 100%
[Note: Sample size=170; Margin of error=7.7%]
Conservatives Count Percent
Very favorable: 12 7.4%
Somewhat favorable: 39 24.1%
Somewhat unfavorable: 33 19.4%
Very unfavorable: 25 14.7%
Heard of, but no opinion: 29 17.1%
Have never heard of: 24 14.1%
Total: 162 100%
[Note: Sample size=162; Margin of error=7.9%]
Moderates Count Percent
Very favorable: 7 5.7%
Somewhat favorable: 31 25.2%
Somewhat unfavorable: 18 14.6%
Very unfavorable: 7 5.7%
Heard of, but no opinion: 28 22.8%
Have never heard of: 32 26.0%
Total: 123 100%
[Note: Sample size=123; Margin of error=9.0%]
Further information on methodology: The survey was performed using a recorded voice, and respondents were asked to push buttons to answer questions. Voters were called if they were registered to vote in Overland Park, and if they had voted in the November election of 2008 and/or the November election of 2010. Gender and age were determined by question, and party affiliation was determined by registration data.
